Unemployment Rate Forecasting & Risk Stratification
Jun
2016
Jan 2021
Problem / Purpose
Accurate forecasting of state unemployment insurance (SUI) rate schedule shifts and client-level renewals was critical for financial planning, risk management, and client pricing—but was historically reactive and imprecise.
Solution
Used public unemployment fund data, internal claims, and wage history to forecast the state’s upcoming SUI rate schedule and predict client-level renewal rates. Applied the forecast to refine risk stratification strategy. Created forecasts with 100% accuracy at the state level and near-perfect accuracy for client renewals (only a few missed due to rate threshold shifts).
Key Achievements / Impact
Accurately predicted state SUI schedule changes, enabling proactive strategy planning. Improved risk segmentation and client renewal forecasting accuracy. Strengthened credibility of Pricing and Risk teams.
Key Technologies / Tools Used
Excel, SQL, Public Data Integration, Forecasting Models, Risk Stratification, Claims Data Analysis
Role
Pricing Analyst
ProService Hawaii