COVID-Era Monthly Profitability Forecasting
May
2020
Problem / Purpose
During the onset of COVID-19, leadership needed to understand how client shrinkage and rate relief would impact month-by-month profitability. Uncertainty in economic conditions made traditional forecasting unreliable.
Solution
Built a model using public state unemployment rates and internal profitability data to estimate client shrinkage and margin erosion. Incorporated configurable inputs for temporary rate relief programs. Forecasted changes to overall profitability month by month. Final results were within 5% of actual performance.
Key Achievements / Impact
Enabled leadership to plan for pandemic-related financial disruption with confidence. Provided flexible modeling that allowed for scenario adjustments. Forecast remained highly accurate despite market volatility.
Key Technologies / Tools Used
Excel, Public Data Integration, Scenario Forecasting, Margin Modeling, COVID Impact Modeling
Role
Manager, Insurance and Profitability
ProService Hawaii